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Theme Dossier

Nuclear Fuel Cycle — Upstream of the Renaissance

Data-center power agreements have legitimized nuclear demand, but the market prices reactors, not fuel. Restarts, life extensions, and SMR programs all pull on a uranium mining, conversion, and enrichment base that is supply-inelastic for a decade — with Western enrichment capacity strategically scarce.

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Causal Chains

  1. Hyperscaler PPAs and policy support legitimize nuclear as AI-era baseload
  2. Restarts, uprates, and SMR orders raise long-run fuel demand
  3. Uranium mining, conversion, and enrichment capacity cannot expand quickly
  4. Incumbent fuel-cycle producers gain contract pricing power, Western enrichers most of all

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